Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation
 

Forest acreage trends in the Southeast : econometric analysis and policy simulations

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/m326m6138

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  • The objective of this study was to develop a system based on economic criteria for projecting changes in land use areas. The total land base was partitioned among three classes of private forest owners and crop, pasture/range, and urban/other uses in the southeastern United States. The fraction of the land base in an owner/use was hypothesized to be a function of the ratio of the land rent for that owner/use relative to an average rent index for all owners/uses. Systems of econometric equations for the six owner/use classes were estimated by physiographic region: Coastal Plain, Piedmont, and Mountains. The data comprised a pooled cross-sectional/time series, with observations drawn at four time points from the 21 forest survey units in the Southeast. Population, personal income, and land commodity incomes were the major significant variables in the land owner/use equations. Changes in population and personal income levels have contributed to a decline in farm forest acreage and a corresponding increase in miscellaneous private forest acreage. Projections of forest acreage trends with the systems of land owner/use equations indicate a continued drop in farm forest acreage. Miscellaneous private forest acreage is projected to continue to increase, in part because of real personal income levels that are forecast to triple by the year 2040. Projections of acreage changes for the five major forest types by ownership in each physiographic region, using a Markov type model, point to a substantial reduction in natural pine acreage. Transition probabilities among forest types were estimated from forest survey remeasurement data and are conditional with respect to the application of certain management practices. The importance of exogenous forces (e.g., population) for forest acreage trends suggests the need to improve coordination with land use modeling for other sectors. Also needed are the integration of forest acreage modeling with that for forest type transition, timber inventory projection, and harvest estimation in an interregional framework.
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