Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation
 

An investigation of the effects of information displays on human forecasting performance

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/6q182p85n

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  • With increasing frequency man is required to operate as a controller of complex processes. Although his ability to operate quickly varying processes has been extensively studied, his ability to control slowly varying processes has been largely neglected. Often his performance in such tasks is dependent upon his ability to forecast future states of process inputs. Thus the primary goal of this study is to investigate man's ability to forecast future values of numerical time series from historical data and to determine how his performance varies with the display modes. The non-stationary time-series model is applied to produce three sets of discrete data corrupted with a high level of white noise. A set of ten data points is presented to each subject in either a table display, point graph or combination of table and point graph display mode. Six subjects from each of two backgrounds, statistics and non-statistics, are tested. The subjects' tasks are to forecast the process values for the next period and five periods hence. The human model which is assumed is proved valid by the experimental data. Results indicate that the combination of table and point graph display is superior to table display or point graph display alone on both the short-range and the long-range forecasting tasks. People with a statistics background also perform better on the forecasting tasks. Investigations of the relative merits of the point graph, line graph, combination of table and point graph, and combination of table and line graph are recommended for future research efforts.
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