Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation

 

The relationship between vehicle miles traveled and economic activity Public Deposited

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/6t053j257

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  • Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the U.S. have exhibited an upward trend over time similar to that observed for GDP and personal income. While conventional wisdom suggests that economic growth leads to more driving and thus higher VMT, it is theoretically possible that the causation could also be the other way around. If causation is from VMT to GDP, then legislation to reduce VMT could potentially have an adverse impact on economic activity. This study uses times-series techniques to empirically test for Granger causality between VMT and various measures of economic activity over time and additionally incorporates a derived demand model that finds factors such as lane miles, personal income, population density, fuel cost, transit use, etc. to significantly contribute to the demand for urban area VMT. Results show that GDP leads VMT during economic upturns and in very large, large and medium sized urban areas, suggesting that exogenous shocks to VMT would not negatively impact GDP. However, VMT tends to lead GDP at the national level during recessions and in more rural areas.
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